Answer: Published anesthesia workforce forecasts depend on assumptions about both supply and demand. A state health professions board projected that anesthesiologist supply and demand in Virginia would remain aligned except under an early retirement scenario. For an owner reading a forecast, the practical questions concern retirement, working hours, geography, demand, provider roles, and team support.
The short answer
A state health professions board's Virginia projection reached a different conclusion under early retirement. Its other scenarios, including increased use of nurse practitioners and physician assistants and Medicaid expansion, did not affect the model. Read that conclusion in the context of the location and scenarios it covers.
A workforce research center explains that estimating shortages requires more than counting qualified, independent anesthesia providers. Geographic distribution, policies defining scope of work, and the availability of supportive anesthesia team members also matter.
Start with what the forecast counts. Then look at how it handles the people, working hours, demand, and care arrangements behind those counts.
What usually goes wrong
Retirement intentions can be read as definite departures. Survey authors reported that a large proportion of anesthesiologists were considering retirement or reduced work hours. Considering a change is different from making it. Keep retirement and reduced hours separate when reading the forecast's assumptions.
The same survey authors reported significant equipment and staff shortages. Most respondents indicated that burnout was a significant problem. Those findings belong alongside the reported intentions to retire or reduce hours, without turning those intentions into a definite loss of providers.
Demand also needs attention. Review authors identified population growth, increased surgical demand, and reluctance to enter or remain in anesthesiology as factors compounding shortages. Look for how a forecast represents each of those factors.
Care models bring tradeoffs into the discussion. Ophthalmologist interview participants connected potential anesthesia workforce shortages and increasing service demand with interest in different delivery models. They also emphasized the need to consider the tradeoffs involved.
What a veteran checks first
- Retirement: whether the projection distinguishes an early retirement scenario from its other scenarios.
- Working hours: whether reduced hours are represented separately from provider departures.
- Geography: which provider distribution the estimate represents.
- Demand: what assumptions represent population growth and surgical demand.
- Scope of work: which provider roles and policies the estimate assumes.
- Team support: what availability of supportive anesthesia team members the estimate assumes.
Use these questions to keep the discussion tied to the forecast's assumptions. For each answer, distinguish what the projection assumes from what survey respondents were considering.
What the evidence says
The state health professions board's projection puts retirement timing at the center of its differing scenario results. The workforce research center broadens the discussion to provider counts, geography, scope of work policies, and team availability.
The caregiver survey authors add retirement intentions, reduced hours, burnout, and equipment and staff shortages. The review authors identify pressures involving demand and participation in the profession. The ophthalmologist interview participants bring a service delivery perspective, including the tradeoffs of different care models.
Questions to bring to the partner meeting
- What retirement scenario produced the forecast's conclusion?
- How does the projection represent reduced working hours?
- What geographic distribution does the estimate cover?
- What demand assumptions appear in the projection?
- Which provider roles and supportive team members does the assumed care model involve?
Sources
- Joseph Cravero; Morgan L. Brown
- Ophthalmologist interview participants, unnamed
- University of Washington Center for Health Workforce Studies
- Virginia Board of Health Professions
- Zahra Keyvanlo, Fatemeh Kokabisaghi, Mahdi Yousefi et al.
